We are finally receiving some moisture across much of western Kansas and the panhandle.  Over the past week most areas have received at least an inch or a little more.  In fields where wheat had not emerged, it will take at least 30 days to see much of the stand fill in.  Conditions from Garden City north are much better and this recent moisture will sustain the crop well into February.  It really makes very little sense to make any decisions on the wheat until we get into early March.  Obviously moisture usage will be very low for the next couple of months and there will be time to decide on the best options for alternate crops later.  Milo seed will likely be in short supply again in 2008 and it might be good to reserve extra supplies for fields where the wheat stand is still not established. 

Pest problems are non existant at this time.  After starting the fall off with low levels of Cherry Aphids in some of the earlier planted wheat fields, aphid numbers have declined rapidly with the colder temperatures.     

The 2008 wheat crop is off to a rough start.  After experiencing tremendous yields in 2007 west of Dodge City, we will be challenged to see results even close to that in 2008.  From Garden City north wheat stands are mostly adequate but really have not had any significant moisture since planting.  The wheat has survived and can still produce a decent crop assuming the moisture eventually comes.  The biggest concern is the lack of crown root development and the potential for winter kill.  South of Garden City and in the Oklahoma panhandle wheat stands are mostly poor.  Many growers finally dusted the wheat in and we have still not had the rainfall to achieve stands.  We can still produce a crop in that area but the clock is ticking.  Wheat that emerges in January and February will only produce 50 to 60% of normal yields.  The question is what are normal yields?  If the early established wheat has the potential to produce 40 bushel than this late emerging wheat will likely produce no better than 20 or 25 bushels.  If conditions allow for 60 bushel wheat where stands were established at ideal times than this late wheat might make as much as 40 bushel.  The take home message from this is that even if the stand is not in place today, I wouldn't write it off yet.