Wheat that was dusted in back in the late fall is just starting to emerge.  The area affected runs from south of Garden City and into the majority of the Oklahoma panhandle.  It runs from the Colorado line in the west and as far east as Dodge City and Meade.  There is still potential in this crop but it will not yield what it could have if moisture conditions at planting had been better.  Irrigated wheat in this same area is in much better condition but this only represents about 10% of the total wheat acres.  With colder temperatures and a lack of snow cover there is some concern that this late  wheat will be more prone to winter kill.  In my opinion this is a minor concern as the winter losses in the past to the Kansas and Oklahoma wheat crops have actually come in the early spring and not from absolute cold temperatures in the winter months.

There are still no serious pest concerns.  Some of the earliest planted fields have low levels of Cherry Aphids but at this point there are no greenbug or russian wheat aphid threats.

 


Comments

Ed Banning

Mon, 21 Jan 2008 15:59:20

Glad to learn about your new site. We have the same problem with no fall emergance on our dryland wheat in CO., but we have snow cover and don't know what to expect this spring when the thaw comes. At $10 a bushel we will take any yield. Should we be concerned about test weight on these semi-dwarf varieties?????

 

Fred Fisher

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 04:57:52

Would expect to see at least a 7 day delay in harvest and also a corresponding test weight drop. The study by KSU cited in an earlier blog showed that test weight dropped about 3 points between October and January planting dates. The entire study is at: http://www.oznet.ksu.edu/library/CRPSL2/SRL107.PDF

 

John McClelland

Wed, 23 Jan 2008 14:20:46

Many of your concerns seem to be from GC south. How are you feeling about the wheat crop from GC north to I-70?

 

Fred Fisher

Wed, 23 Jan 2008 14:30:52

The wheat north and east of Garden City is in good condition with timely emergence and adequate stands. In a lot of cases these stands are better than the 2007 crop. This would be true for the Digton area as well. North and west of Garden City conditions are more variable. The Deerfield area for the most part has decent stands but there are a lot more exceptions to this in that area. As a ballpark I would put it as 75% to 80% good. Further north and west (south of Colby to Leoti) stands are erratic as well with conditions improving again north of Colby. I really don't have a good feel for the crop west of Colby.

 

John McClelland

Wed, 30 Jan 2008 09:48:47

Are the wheat stands poor enough in some areas that farmers will consider abandoning it and trying for a spring crop?

 

Kraig Lindsay

Thu, 31 Jan 2008 07:04:32

I know that I am out of Fred's trade area, but here is my 2 cents. The wheat stands in the Bucklin area are spotty with up to 50% of the crop not emerged yet. However the wheat that has not emerged has sprouted and has anywhere from a 1/16" sprout to a 1/2" sprout on it. Concerns have shifted from worrying about the wheat not being up to the wheat that is up. The wheat that emerged on time has 5 to 8 tillers, but has been heaved up in the heavier soils from the moisture followed by very cold temps. Much of the crown roots are exposed leaving only the primary roots system in contact with the soil.

 

Fred Fisher

Thu, 31 Jan 2008 12:16:22

Some of these late emerging wheat fields will likely go to other crops (mostly milo). It is difficult to estimate total acres affected at this point and it will take at least until March to get a better handle on the magnitude of this problem. Of course milo and wheat prices at that time will play a role but there is no point in deciding that today from the farmers perspective. It is too soon to kill wheat with Glyphosate and nutrient usage and moisture usage should remain low until March as well. At that point decisions will be made. In some of the worst wheat years over the past decade crop destruct has seldom approached 50% for an entire crop reporting district. To throw some numbers out there today, we could see 25% to 30% of the planted wheat acres in the SW district destroyed and 10% to 15% in the west central district destoyed.

 



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