With the warmer temperatures, the wheat is starting to actively grow. I would expect we could see jointed wheat in the OK Panhandle by March 15 and in the Garden City area by April 1st. At that point Dicamba needs to be dropped from herbicide mixes. This will also be the point where the wheat becomes vulnerable to spring kill. In the past most of these later devastating freezes have occured in early April through about the 20th of April. Cold temperatures in March are not nearly as threatening.
The wheat south of Garden City (southwest reporting district) is in the poorest shape. Numerous dryland fields still have not established a viable plant stand and never will. We will likely see fairly high crop destruction numbers in that district (maybe as high as 40% to 50%). Assuming we get rain through March and April many of these fields will be replaced with milo. The problem is not as severe in the west central reporting district but in the western part of that district crop destruct will be higher than normal as well. District wide, it could be 25% to 30%.
We still do not have any threats from insects. Normally aphid problems are the first insects to appear. In early planted wheat cherry aphids were present last fall. It doesn't appear they have survived the winter.